The anticipated expansion of the College Football Playoff (CFP) is no longer a question of if, but when. Across college football, from universities to athletic departments and locker rooms, change has been expected for a long time. The coming weeks are crucial as decision-makers meet to shape the future of the College Football Playoff, aiming to finalize a recommendation soon, with details and TV contracts to follow later this year.
Conversations with over a dozen stakeholders, including university officials, athletic directors, and media executives, reveal a surprising consensus: a 12-team playoff is emerging as the frontrunner, surpassing the previously considered 8-team model. A high-ranking college official noted, “The reason that you go to 12 is because you can develop the road of least resistance toward a good result,” suggesting 12 teams offers a smoother path forward.
While processes are still underway, the first key meeting is set for July 17 and 18 in Chicago. Here, a four-member working group, which has explored expansion for two years, will present findings to the CFP management committee. This group includes notable figures like SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby, Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick, and Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson. Their discussions are expected to produce a recommendation for the CFP board of managers – 11 presidents and chancellors representing the FBS conferences and Notre Dame – who will then shape the playoff’s future, though final details will come later.
Despite the growing buzz around a 12-team format, it’s important to note that no definitive outcome is guaranteed yet. Group dynamics, varied agendas, and financial implications from new TV deals add complexity. TV discussions, critical to the expansion, are slated for the coming months. Even if a model is chosen soon, months of planning and negotiation will precede any formal announcement. However, the increasing acknowledgment of the 12-team playoff as the leading option is evident across the college football landscape. One industry source commented, “I do believe they’ve looked at all kinds of different things. But I haven’t even heard an option B discussed in any detail.”
Why 12 Teams Gains Traction Over 8 for CFP Expansion
The rising favor of a 12-team model is rooted in the intricate dynamics of college football, balancing interests from powerhouse programs to smaller conferences. A key factor is the concept of at-large bids. The current four-team CFP is entirely at-large. Many proposed 8-team models include five or six automatic bids, reducing at-large spots. This decrease is less appealing to the SEC and Notre Dame, who might see expansion as limiting their access despite their strong positions. Conversely, the Pac-12 and Group of Five conferences are unlikely to support expansion without guaranteed automatic bids.
An 8-team format also raises concerns about exclusion. With six automatic bids, highly ranked teams around No. 4 or 5 could be left out, while a team ranked as low as No. 18 might qualify due to an automatic bid. This scenario creates discomfort for many stakeholders. The preference for maintaining a smaller four-team playoff among some powerful entities further complicates the move to eight teams. Thus, a 12-team structure has emerged as a more palatable compromise, even with some discussions around a 10-team tournament as a middle ground.
A 12-team playoff addresses pressing issues within the CFP: limited program diversity, access for Group of Five conferences, and the declining significance of non-CFP top-tier bowl games due to player opt-outs. The anticipated 12-team format would likely allocate automatic bids to the five major conference champions and the highest-ranked Group of Five champion. The remaining six spots would be at-large bids. This structure balances guaranteed access for smaller conferences with ample opportunities for major conferences, crucial for achieving consensus among voting members.
The operational details of an 11-game, 12-team system are still to be determined. The current concept suggests the top four teams would receive a bye, while teams ranked No. 5 through No. 8 would host teams No. 9 through No. 12 in opening-round games on campus sites. While home games are attractive, this could potentially displease higher-ranked teams missing out on the larger revenues and prestige of neutral-site playoff games. The existing bowl system is expected to remain integrated, with many high-profile bowls retaining their status. The role of the Rose Bowl, with former Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany consulting, remains a point of interest. Delany, historically a playoff obstructionist, previously secured a Rose Bowl deal with ESPN that impacted prime game slots. For now, bowls are expected to be part of the system, and the Rose Bowl’s flexibility will be key. The New Year’s Six Bowls are contractually linked with the playoffs, adding further complexity. Delany’s efforts to preserve the Rose Bowl’s tradition within the evolving landscape are a captivating subplot for industry insiders.
TV and Commissioner Influence on CFP Expansion
The evolving landscape of college football leadership also plays a role. The power conferences have new commissioners: Kevin Warren (Big Ten), Jim Phillips (ACC), and George Kliavkoff (Pac-12). Despite these new faces, one industry veteran observes, “I’d say Sankey is head and shoulders the most powerful voice in the room. He probably has more power than the three new guys combined,” highlighting the significant influence of the SEC commissioner.
While public discourse emphasizes “student-athlete welfare,” expansion discussions ultimately revolve around finance and safety. Player safety will be a central debate, particularly for university presidents. Conversely, the potential for athletes to leverage their Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) in a larger playoff format could be a motivating factor. The financial implications of an expanded playoff are substantial. The new TV deal is expected to far exceed the current one, reportedly averaging $470 million annually. ESPN, the current primary broadcaster, holds a 12-year contract (seven years remaining) and likely has an exclusive negotiating window. A 12-team playoff would significantly enhance the value of existing high-profile games and create more broadcast inventory, making it a valuable property for networks. The increasing trend of multiple TV networks bidding and the rise of direct-to-consumer streaming platforms will influence negotiations. ESPN’s strategy will likely be to leverage its exclusive window to retain the CFP on its linear channels. The specifics of the future TV deal remain a major unknown.
For the immediate future, the 2021 and 2022 seasons will remain unchanged, as CFP officials have confirmed no alterations for the next two years. The next three weeks will be pivotal in shaping the post-2022 landscape. While many factors can influence the final decision, the 12-team model is clearly the leading contender as college football approaches a potentially transformative period.
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