Pete Alonso, affectionately nicknamed “Polar Bear,” has quickly established himself as one of baseball’s premier power hitters. Since entering the league, his ability to hit home runs has been a defining characteristic of his game. This article delves into Pete Alonso’s home run hitting prowess through the lens of Statcast data, providing a comprehensive analysis of his batted ball profile, expected home runs, and year-over-year trends. We’ll explore the key metrics that define Alonso’s home run ability and what the numbers reveal about his consistent power at the plate.
Pete Alonso’s Statcast Batting Statistics: A Home Run Hitter’s Profile
The following table breaks down Pete Alonso’s Statcast batting statistics from 2019 to 2024, offering insights into the consistency and evolution of his offensive performance. Key metrics like Barrel percentage, Exit Velocity, and Launch Angle are crucial in understanding his home run hitting ability.
| Season | Age | Pitches | Batted Balls | Barrels | Barrel % | Barrel/PA | Exit Velocity | Max EV | Launch Angle | LA Sweet-Spot % | XBA | XSLG | WOBA | XWOBA | XWOBACON | HardHit% | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 24 | 2762 | 417 | 66 | 15.8 | 9.5 | 90.7 | 118.3 | 14.8 | 36.9 | .257 | .551 | .384 | .380 | .482 | 42.7 | 26.4 | 10.4 |
| 2020 | 25 | 929 | 148 | 19 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 90.2 | 118.4 | 15.5 | 30.4 | .225 | .463 | .342 | .334 | .407 | 41.2 | 25.5 | 10.0 |
| 2021 | 26 | 2298 | 438 | 65 | 14.8 | 10.2 | 91.0 | 118.4 | 14.7 | 34.5 | .271 | .542 | .363 | .377 | .438 | 47.3 | 19.9 | 9.4 |
| 2022 | 27 | 2507 | 478 | 59 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 89.8 | 116.5 | 18.2 | 34.5 | .262 | .486 | .366 | .353 | .403 | 44.8 | 18.7 | 9.8 |
| 2023 | 28 | 2567 | 421 | 62 | 14.7 | 9.4 | 89.5 | 115.7 | 18.2 | 32.3 | .246 | .527 | .346 | .368 | .436 | 40.1 | 22.9 | 9.9 |
| 2024 | 29 | 2780 | 440 | 58 | 13.2 | 8.3 | 89.8 | 116.3 | 14.4 | 30.5 | .242 | .461 | .340 | .343 | .414 | 46.4 | 24.7 | 10.1 |
| Player | 13843 | 2342 | 329 | 14.0 | 9.1 | 90.1 | 118.4 | 16.1 | 33.5 | .253 | .509 | .358 | .362 | .432 | 44.1 | 22.8 | 9.9 | |
| MLB | 82372 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 88.5 | 122.4 | 12.3 | 33.2 | .245 | .405 | .316 | .315 | .368 | 36.5 | 22.2 | 8.4 |
Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.
From this table, we can observe that Pete Alonso consistently outperforms the league average in key power metrics such as Barrel %, Barrel/PA, Exit Velocity, and Max EV. His Barrel percentage, consistently double the MLB average, highlights his ability to make high-quality contact, a strong indicator of home run potential.
Batted Ball Profile and Home Run Trajectory
Analyzing Pete Alonso’s batted ball profile provides further evidence of his home run-centric approach. The following table outlines the types of batted balls he produces and their distribution.
| Season | GB % | FB % | LD % | PU % | Pull % | Straight % | Oppo % | Weak % | Topped % | Under % | Flare/Burner % | Solid % | Barrel % | Barrel/PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 40.8 | 28.3 | 23.3 | 7.7 | 42.4 | 38.6 | 18.9 | 3.6 | 30.2 | 23.5 | 18.9 | 6.7 | 15.8 | 9.5 |
| 2020 | 39.9 | 29.7 | 19.6 | 10.8 | 41.2 | 33.1 | 25.7 | 4.1 | 31.1 | 27.7 | 17.6 | 4.7 | 12.8 | 7.9 |
| 2021 | 39.0 | 30.8 | 22.8 | 7.3 | 38.4 | 35.2 | 26.5 | 4.3 | 27.9 | 24.4 | 20.1 | 8.2 | 14.8 | 10.2 |
| 2022 | 36.4 | 30.5 | 23.0 | 10.0 | 41.4 | 34.1 | 24.5 | 4.8 | 24.1 | 30.1 | 23.8 | 4.8 | 12.3 | 8.6 |
| 2023 | 36.3 | 35.4 | 19.0 | 9.3 | 43.7 | 32.8 | 23.5 | 3.8 | 28.0 | 29.5 | 17.6 | 6.4 | 14.7 | 9.4 |
| 2024 | 42.0 | 28.2 | 21.1 | 8.6 | 41.6 | 32.3 | 26.1 | 5.5 | 29.5 | 25.5 | 19.5 | 6.6 | 13.2 | 8.3 |
| Player | 38.9 | 30.6 | 21.7 | 8.8 | 41.5 | 34.5 | 24.1 | 4.4 | 28.1 | 26.7 | 19.9 | 6.4 | 14.0 | 9.1 |
| MLB | 44.4 | 23.8 | 24.7 | 7.1 | 37.2 | 37.5 | 25.2 | 3.9 | 32.6 | 24.8 | 24.4 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 4.8 |
Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.
Pete Alonso’s Fly Ball percentage (FB%) is significantly higher than the MLB average, while his Ground Ball percentage (GB%) is lower. This indicates a swing path geared towards lifting the ball, which is essential for hitting home runs. His Pull percentage also suggests he frequently turns on pitches, a common trait among power hitters who look to maximize home run distance to the pull side.
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Run Values by Pitch Type: Identifying Pete Alonso’s Home Run Sweet Spots
Examining Run Values against different pitch types can reveal which pitches Pete Alonso handles best for power and home runs. Positive Run Values indicate pitches he hits effectively, often for extra bases.
| Year | Pitch Type | Team | RV/100 | Run Value | Pitches | % | PA | BA | SLG | wOBA | Whiff% | K% | PutAway % | xBA | xSLG | xwOBA | Hard Hit % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 4-Seam Fastball | 2.0 | 16 | 817 | 29.4 | 187 | .259 | .633 | .417 | 20.4 | 21.9 | 16.4 | .226 | .537 | .375 | 44.1 | |
| 2024 | Sinker | 0.3 | 2 | 613 | 22.1 | 160 | .288 | .417 | .363 | 11.7 | 14.4 | 21.3 | .298 | .468 | .378 | 55.2 | |
| 2024 | Slider | -1.7 | -9 | 537 | 19.3 | 132 | .160 | .277 | .228 | 37.3 | 31.1 | 21.8 | .192 | .321 | .253 | 30.9 | |
| 2024 | Cutter | 0.7 | 1 | 189 | 6.8 | 46 | .225 | .500 | .382 | 24.0 | 28.3 | 32.5 | .258 | .580 | .400 | 40.7 | |
| 2024 | Changeup | 1.6 | 3 | 185 | 6.7 | 53 | .320 | .580 | .400 | 27.0 | 17.0 | 14.3 | .328 | .627 | .424 | 61.0 | |
| 2024 | Curveball | -1.2 | -2 | 183 | 6.6 | 44 | .211 | .289 | .283 | 36.8 | 45.5 | 29.0 | .178 | .254 | .258 | 44.4 | |
| 2024 | Sweeper | -0.9 | -1 | 162 | 5.8 | 40 | .162 | .270 | .246 | 32.4 | 35.0 | 23.3 | .188 | .348 | .263 | 34.8 | |
| 2024 | Split-Finger | 1.5 | 1 | 72 | 2.6 | 24 | .261 | .609 | .375 | 46.2 | 37.5 | 29.0 | .253 | .519 | .339 | 64.3 | |
| 2024 | Slurve | 1.5 | 0 | 9 | 0.3 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 25.0 | — | — | .000 | — | |
| 2023 | 4-Seam Fastball | 0.8 | 7 | 771 | 30.0 | 187 | .196 | .536 | .362 | 20.4 | 20.3 | 17.3 | .242 | .590 | .401 | 43.2 | |
| 2023 | Sinker | 1.5 | 8 | 544 | 21.2 | 161 | .281 | .562 | .398 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 14.3 | .297 | .586 | .400 | 38.2 | |
| 2023 | Slider | 0.7 | 3 | 450 | 17.5 | 115 | .200 | .571 | .357 | 42.0 | 39.1 | 31.5 | .229 | .558 | .358 | 47.5 | |
| 2023 | Changeup | 0.1 | 0 | 256 | 10.0 | 55 | .160 | .380 | .284 | 41.1 | 32.7 | 18.2 | .225 | .440 | .318 | 28.1 | |
| 2023 | Curveball | 0.7 | 1 | 194 | 7.6 | 37 | .226 | .484 | .362 | 22.6 | 21.6 | 13.8 | .267 | .493 | .383 | 47.8 | |
| 2023 | Cutter | 1.7 | 3 | 158 | 6.2 | 41 | .303 | .606 | .445 | 28.4 | 22.0 | 29.0 | .288 | .555 | .422 | 37.5 | |
| 2023 | Sweeper | -0.2 | 0 | 131 | 5.1 | 35 | .167 | .233 | .274 | 31.7 | 22.9 | 14.3 | .158 | .238 | .245 | 36.4 | |
| 2023 | Split-Finger | -5.9 | -3 | 50 | 1.9 | 16 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 53.6 | 62.5 | 37.0 | .029 | .037 | .027 | 16.7 | |
| 2023 | Slurve | -9.4 | -1 | 6 | 0.2 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | .073 | .121 | .085 | 0.0 | |
| 2022 | 4-Seam Fastball | 0.8 | 6 | 750 | 29.9 | 172 | .255 | .523 | .374 | 21.0 | 19.8 | 16.3 | .261 | .544 | .382 | 46.2 | |
| 2022 | Sinker | 1.7 | 9 | 536 | 21.4 | 165 | .322 | .548 | .408 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 11.5 | .293 | .476 | .364 | 45.3 | |
| 2022 | Slider | 0.8 | 4 | 442 | 17.6 | 123 | .212 | .496 | .329 | 34.6 | 28.5 | 22.3 | .240 | .490 | .344 | 45.6 | |
| 2022 | Curveball | 4.3 | 9 | 223 | 8.9 | 50 | .356 | .644 | .453 | 39.6 | 30.0 | 20.5 | .281 | .481 | .365 | 46.7 | |
| 2022 | Changeup | 4.8 | 10 | 208 | 8.3 | 54 | .367 | .816 | .504 | 23.0 | 13.0 | 10.0 | .304 | .593 | .390 | 47.7 | |
| 2022 | Cutter | -3.8 | -7 | 184 | 7.3 | 51 | .130 | .130 | .175 | 34.0 | 21.6 | 26.2 | .156 | .196 | .208 | 28.6 | |
| 2022 | Sweeper | 1.9 | 2 | 134 | 5.3 | 44 | .282 | .436 | .353 | 38.2 | 29.5 | 26.5 | .254 | .512 | .368 | 48.1 | |
| 2022 | Split-Finger | -3.3 | -1 | 25 | 1.0 | 7 | .143 | .143 | .129 | 25.0 | 14.3 | 12.5 | .209 | .380 | .251 | 33.3 | |
| 2022 | Slurve | 18.1 | 1 | 4 | 0.2 | 2 | .500 | 1.000 | .625 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | .362 | .676 | .438 | 50.0 | |
| 2021 | 4-Seam Fastball | 0.8 | 6 | 756 | 32.9 | 168 | .280 | .531 | .396 | 24.0 | 23.2 | 18.9 | .295 | .607 | .425 | 58.7 | |
| 2021 | Sinker | 1.5 | 7 | 481 | 20.9 | 143 | .320 | .557 | .434 | 14.8 | 10.5 | 18.1 | .323 | .570 | .420 | 45.9 | |
| 2021 | Slider | 0.9 | 3 | 362 | 15.8 | 110 | .231 | .615 | .371 | 36.1 | 34.5 | 32.8 | .248 | .604 | .360 | 47.1 | |
| 2021 | Changeup | 0.6 | 1 | 257 | 11.2 | 81 | .200 | .343 | .317 | 22.5 | 13.6 | 15.3 | .225 | .393 | .322 | 44.1 | |
| 2021 | Curveball | -0.2 | 0 | 226 | 9.8 | 66 | .206 | .365 | .278 | 28.1 | 24.2 | 21.9 | .231 | .481 | .317 | 34.0 | |
| 2021 | Cutter | 1.4 | 2 | 149 | 6.5 | 42 | .275 | .450 | .329 | 34.2 | 11.9 | 13.2 | .256 | .474 | .326 | 48.6 | |
| 2021 | Sweeper | 2.9 | 1 | 32 | 1.4 | 9 | .222 | .889 | .444 | 25.0 | 22.2 | 20.0 | .144 | .314 | .189 | 28.6 | |
| 2021 | Split-Finger | 5.8 | 2 | 32 | 1.4 | 11 | .333 | .667 | .468 | 22.2 | 9.1 | 10.0 | .207 | .297 | .308 | 25.0 | |
| 2021 | Slurve | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | ||
| 2020 | 4-Seam Fastball | 1.9 | 6 | 302 | 32.5 | 71 | .250 | .719 | .432 | 22.8 | 26.8 | 21.8 | .251 | .618 | .393 | 51.1 | |
| 2020 | Sinker | -1.6 | -3 | 173 | 18.6 | 39 | .235 | .265 | .306 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 8.6 | .223 | .272 | .278 | 25.8 | |
| 2020 | Slider | 0.1 | 0 | 155 | 16.7 | 45 | .237 | .500 | .363 | 43.0 | 28.9 | 24.1 | .243 | .550 | .370 | 38.5 | |
| 2020 | Curveball | -1.2 | -1 | 118 | 12.7 | 31 | .133 | .267 | .185 | 41.7 | 48.4 | 33.3 | .109 | .247 | .165 | 33.3 | |
| 2020 | Cutter | 0.2 | 0 | 91 | 9.8 | 22 | .250 | .250 | .371 | 36.6 | 13.6 | 17.6 | .216 | .273 | .351 | 30.8 | |
| 2020 | Changeup | -0.9 | -1 | 74 | 8.0 | 21 | .238 | .524 | .352 | 46.0 | 33.3 | 35.0 | .285 | .578 | .399 | 64.3 | |
| 2020 | Sweeper | -2.3 | 0 | 7 | 0.8 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0.0 | |
| 2020 | Split-Finger | 15.1 | 1 | 6 | 0.6 | 4 | .500 | 1.250 | .725 | 20.0 | 25.0 | 33.3 | .336 | .696 | .435 | 66.7 | |
| 2019 | 4-Seam Fastball | 1.9 | 16 | 864 | 31.3 | 199 | .287 | .744 | .472 | 25.7 | 26.6 | 19.9 | .267 | .663 | .440 | 52.3 | |
| 2019 | Sinker | 3.0 | 17 | 554 | 20.1 | 150 | .297 | .570 | .446 | 14.9 | 16.0 | 19.5 | .287 | .545 | .398 | 34.6 | |
| 2019 | Slider | 0.0 | 0 | 474 | 17.2 | 117 | .255 | .462 | .341 | 40.3 | 34.2 | 25.3 | .234 | .441 | .318 | 40.9 | |
| 2019 | Curveball | -1.4 | -5 | 352 | 12.7 | 75 | .134 | .388 | .280 | 28.0 | 30.7 | 22.1 | .204 | .534 | .344 | 44.4 | |
| 2019 | Changeup | 2.7 | 7 | 260 | 9.4 | 82 | .269 | .641 | .437 | 31.4 | 29.3 | 25.5 | .265 | .558 | .357 | 40.7 | |
| 2019 | Cutter | 4.0 | 6 | 161 | 5.8 | 36 | .323 | .710 | .493 | 36.5 | 19.4 | 20.6 | .362 | .602 | .443 | 45.8 | |
| 2019 | Split-Finger | -3.8 | -2 | 61 | 2.2 | 17 | .063 | .250 | .159 | 36.7 | 52.9 | 37.5 | .089 | .265 | .175 | 14.3 | |
| 2019 | Sweeper | -2.7 | 0 | 17 | 0.6 | 5 | .200 | .200 | .180 | 55.6 | 60.0 | 50.0 | .171 | .209 | .159 | 100.0 | |
| 2019 | Slurve | -2.4 | 0 | 4 | 0.1 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | .062 | .062 | .056 | 0.0 |
Note: Years are in reverse order.
Pete Alonso shows a tendency to perform well against fastballs (4-Seam Fastball and Sinker), indicated by positive Run Values. This is typical for power hitters, as fastballs are generally thrown with less movement, allowing hitters to utilize their strength and bat speed. Conversely, his negative Run Values against sliders and curveballs suggest these pitch types are more challenging for him, likely due to their movement and deception.
Statcast Batting Run Value: Swing Decisions and Home Runs
Statcast’s Swing/Take Run Value further breaks down a hitter’s offensive contributions based on swing decisions in different pitch locations. “Heart” pitches are in the middle of the plate, “Shadow” pitches are on the edges, “Chase” pitches are outside the strike zone, and “Waste” pitches are far outside.
| Runs |
|---|
| Year |
| 2019 |
| 2020 |
| 2021 |
| 2022 |
| 2023 |
| 2024 |
Pete Alonso consistently generates positive Run Value on “Chase” pitches, indicating a willingness and ability to hit pitches outside the strike zone for productive outcomes. His positive “Heart” Run Value confirms he capitalizes on pitches in the heart of the plate, which are prime home run locations. The negative “Shadow” values suggest an area for potential improvement, possibly by being more selective on pitches at the edge of the zone.
Plate Discipline: Aggressiveness and Home Run Potential
Plate discipline stats reveal Pete Alonso’s approach at the plate, showing his aggressiveness and selectivity, which are factors in his home run hitting.
| Season | Pitches | Zone % | Zone Swing % | Zone Contact % | Chase % | Chase Contact % | Edge % | 1st Pitch Swing % | Swing % | Whiff % | Meatball % | Meatball Swing % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2,762 | 41.3 | 67.4 | 80.9 | 31.9 | 58.3 | 41.4 | 28.3 | 46.6 | 28.0 | 6.2 | 71.8 |
| 2020 | 929 | 44.7 | 65.3 | 82.3 | 30.5 | 47.8 | 41.8 | 33.8 | 46.1 | 30.4 | 6.5 | 78.3 |
| 2021 | 2,298 | 46.2 | 70.9 | 83.4 | 30.8 | 58.8 | 42.6 | 36.7 | 49.3 | 24.9 | 6.8 | 85.4 |
| 2022 | 2,507 | 43.8 | 70.9 | 84.3 | 33.5 | 61.9 | 44.3 | 33.5 | 49.9 | 24.2 | 5.5 | 84.7 |
| 2023 | 2,567 | 47.2 | 61.9 | 82.1 | 27.4 | 56.9 | 42.1 | 24.3 | 43.7 | 26.2 | 6.8 | 67.2 |
| 2024 | 2,780 | 48.3 | 61.0 | 85.9 | 25.9 | 51.9 | 43.2 | 25.1 | 42.9 | 24.7 | 6.7 | 72.2 |
| Player | 13,843 | 45.3 | 66.0 | 83.3 | 30.0 | 57.1 | 42.6 | 29.8 | 46.3 | 26.0 | 6.4 | 75.8 |
| MLB | 48.7 | 67.0 | 82.0 | 28.5 | 57.8 | 42.6 | 29.9 | 47.2 | 25.0 | 7.3 | 76.3 |
Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.
Alonso’s Zone Swing % and Swing % are slightly below the league average, suggesting a somewhat patient approach, yet he still swings at a significant portion of pitches. His Chase Rate is around league average, but his Chase Contact % is high, aligning with the positive Chase Run Values. Notably, his Meatball Swing % is very high, indicating he rarely misses hittable pitches, which contributes to his home run totals.
Percentile Rankings: Pete Alonso’s Elite Power
Percentile rankings place Pete Alonso among the league’s best in key offensive categories, especially those related to power and home runs.
| Year | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | xISO | xOBP | Brl | Brl% | EV | Max EV | Hard Hit% | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Chase Rate | Speed | OAA | Arm Strength | Bat Speed | Squared-up Rate | Swing Length |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 91 | 49 | 92 | 95 | 82 | 99 | 97 | 76 | 100 | 73 | 18 | 70 | 25 | 29 | 41 | 10 | ||||
| 2020 | 56 | 20 | 68 | 84 | 44 | 89 | 84 | 73 | 100 | 60 | 34 | 62 | 26 | 33 | 32 | 2 | ||||
| 2021 | 90 | 77 | 92 | 91 | 76 | 97 | 89 | 80 | 99 | 81 | 61 | 59 | 46 | 24 | 29 | 83 | 5 | |||
| 2022 | 89 | 74 | 92 | 91 | 84 | 96 | 86 | 66 | 98 | 75 | 65 | 70 | 53 | 19 | 15 | 5 | 11 | |||
| 2023 | 91 | 35 | 93 | 97 | 76 | 97 | 91 | 55 | 97 | 46 | 42 | 68 | 43 | 56 | 18 | 43 | 7 | 92 | 9 | 37 |
| 2024 | 80 | 36 | 82 | 88 | 73 | 95 | 89 | 62 | 98 | 80 | 30 | 75 | 48 | 67 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 24 | 49 |
Pete Alonso consistently ranks in the top percentiles for xwOBA, xSLG, xISO, Barrels, and Barrel %. His Max Exit Velocity consistently approaches the maximum possible, placing him among the strongest hitters in baseball. These rankings underscore his elite power hitting ability.
Expected Home Runs (xHR): Contextualizing Alonso’s Home Run Totals
Expected Home Runs (xHR) provides a context-adjusted view of home run production, accounting for park dimensions and environmental factors. This helps to understand if a player is over- or under-performing their expected home run output.
Adjusted Expected Home Runs
| Year | Team | Avg HR Trot | Actual HR | xHR | HR-xHR | Doubters | Mostly Gone | No Doubters | No Doubter % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22.0 | 53 | 50.5 | 3 | 10 | 27 | 29 | 54.7 | |
| 2020 | 22.8 | 16 | 15.6 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 62.5 | |
| 2021 | 23.3 | 37 | 37.4 | 0 | 11 | 18 | 25 | 67.6 | |
| 2022 | 24.4 | 41 | 38.9 | 2 | 10 | 27 | 19 | 46.3 | |
| 2023 | 23.4 | 46 | 41.5 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 21 | 45.7 | |
| 2024 | 22.8 | 38 | 35.5 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 22 | 57.9 | |
| Player | 23.1 | 231 | 219.4 | 12 | 53 | 124 | 126 | 54.5 |
Standard Expected Home Runs
| Year | Team | Avg HR Trot | Actual HR | xHR | HR-xHR | Doubters | Mostly Gone | No Doubters | No Doubter % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22.0 | 53 | 49.9 | 3 | 8 | 34 | 23 | 43.4 | |
| 2020 | 22.8 | 16 | 14.8 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| 2021 | 23.3 | 37 | 37.3 | 0 | 14 | 19 | 24 | 64.9 | |
| 2022 | 24.4 | 41 | 36.8 | 4 | 12 | 24 | 20 | 48.8 | |
| 2023 | 23.4 | 46 | 42.9 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 23 | 50.0 | |
| 2024 | 22.8 | 38 | 35.2 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 19 | 50.0 | |
| Player | 23.1 | 231 | 216.9 | 14 | 61 | 141 | 109 | 47.2 |
Pete Alonso’s actual home run totals consistently exceed his expected home runs (xHR), both in adjusted and standard models. This suggests he not only hits for power but also possesses a knack for maximizing his home run output, potentially through optimal launch angles and batted ball direction, or outperforming environmental conditions.
Expected Home Runs by Park: Home Runs in Every Ballpark
The following tables show how many home runs Pete Alonso would be expected to hit in every MLB ballpark, providing a park-adjusted view of his home run ability.
Adjusted Expected Home Runs by Park
| Year | HR | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|
| 2019 | 53 | 56 | 46 | 51 | 51 | 52 | 55 | 48 | 40 | 41 | 49 | 50 | 52 | 51 | 52 | 48 | 48 | 46 | 56 | 54 | 53 | 55 | 57 | 53 | 48 | 50 | 48 | 54 | 55 | 50 | 46 |
| 2020 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 14 |
| 2021 | 37 | 41 | 35 | 36 | 40 | 38 | 40 | 39 | 34 | 29 | 34 | 41 | 36 | 31 | 39 | 41 | 34 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 35 | 37 | 48 | 41 | 33 | 32 | 42 | 42 | 39 | 36 | 39 |
| 2022 | 41 | 37 | 32 | 35 | 38 | 39 | 45 | 34 | 29 | 31 | 33 | 43 | 40 | 39 | 41 | 45 | 40 | 37 | 42 | 38 | 40 | 41 | 48 | 40 | 33 | 35 | 45 | 44 | 43 | 41 | 38 |
| 2023 | 46 | 37 | 26 | 38 | 44 | 42 | 45 | 35 | 39 | 38 | 43 | 42 | 40 | 42 | 46 | 46 | 45 | 39 | 46 | 47 | 43 | 42 | 50 | 44 | 39 | 36 | 40 | 45 | 45 | 44 | 38 |
| 2024 | 38 | 32 | 33 | 36 | 33 | 38 | 39 | 34 | 34 | 29 | 35 | 42 | 36 | 33 | 37 | 33 | 32 | 29 | 36 | 46 | 36 | 36 | 46 | 39 | 28 | 34 | 37 | 38 | 37 | 35 | 33 |
| Player | 231 | 218 | 188 | 212 | 222 | 226 | 241 | 204 | 189 | 182 | 208 | 232 | 219 | 212 | 231 | 228 | 215 | 203 | 233 | 240 | 225 | 227 | 265 | 234 | 195 | 202 | 226 | 239 | 236 | 223 | 208 |
Note: xHR tells how many of this player’s home runs would have been out of other stadiums. The “Adjusted” view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard Expected Home Runs by Park
| Year | HR | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—|
| 2019 | 53 | 55 | 50 | 54 | 48 | 54 | 56 | 49 | 43 | 40 | 50 | 52 | 50 | 53 | 55 | 47 | 47 | 43 | 55 | 55 | 54 | 55 | 55 | 51 | 48 | 50 | 39 | 32 | 53 | 53 | 50 |
| 2020 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 0 | 17 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 11 | 17 | 17 | 18 |
| 2021 | 37 | 42 | 40 | 40 | 34 | 40 | 42 | 37 | 39 | 27 | 37 | 44 | 38 | 33 | 44 | 31 | 35 | 37 | 36 | 44 | 36 | 39 | 45 | 40 | 32 | 33 | 30 | 26 | 41 | 40 | 38 |
| 2022 | 41 | 36 | 32 | 38 | 31 | 36 | 46 | 37 | 36 | 27 | 33 | 40 | 39 | 37 | 44 | 34 | 35 | 35 | 44 | 44 | 36 | 41 | 46 | 40 | 33 | 31 | 26 | 25 | 43 | 41 | 38 |
| 2023 | 46 | 40 | 35 | 45 | 44 | 46 | 48 | 42 | 39 | 34 | 43 | 47 | 43 | 46 | 48 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 47 | 48 | 46 | 44 | 48 | 44 | 40 | 40 | 34 | 31 | 49 | 47 | 43 |
| 2024 | 38 | 33 | 38 | 39 | 32 | 40 | 42 | 36 | 36 | 27 | 33 | 42 | 35 | 34 | 42 | 32 | 29 | 30 | 37 | 43 | 36 | 41 | 42 | 38 | 27 | 31 | 29 | 23 | 39 | 38 | 32 |
| Player | 231 | 223 | 210 | 232 | 203 | 216 | 251 | 215 | 207 | 168 | 210 | 239 | 220 | 219 | 250 | 200 | 204 | 202 | 235 | 251 | 225 | 236 | 252 | 230 | 194 | 200 | 170 | 148 | 242 | 236 | 219 |
Note: xHR tells how many of this player’s home runs would have been out of other stadiums. The “Standard” view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
These tables illustrate Pete Alonso’s potential to hit home runs in any MLB stadium. The numbers fluctuate based on park dimensions and environmental factors, but consistently remain high across all parks, emphasizing his raw power.
Year-to-Year Changes: Consistency and Trends in Power
Analyzing year-to-year changes in Statcast metrics reveals the stability and evolution of Pete Alonso’s offensive profile, particularly concerning his home run ability.
| Metric | 2019 | 2020 | +/- | 2021 | +/- | 2022 | +/- | 2023 | +/- | 2024 | +/- | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exit Velocity | 90.7 | 90.2 | -0.5 | ↓ | 91.0 | 0.8 | ↑ | 89.8 | -1.2 | ↓ | 89.5 | -0.3 | ↓ | 89.8 | 0.3 | ↑ |
| Launch Angle | 14.8 | 15.5 | 0.7 | ↑ | 14.7 | -0.8 | ↓ | 18.2 | 3.5 | ↑ | 18.2 | 0.0 | 14.4 | -3.8 | ↓ | |
| Barrel % | 15.8 | 12.8 | -3.0 | ↓ | 14.8 | 2.0 | ↑ | 12.3 | -2.5 | ↓ | 14.7 | 2.4 | ↑ | 13.2 | -1.5 | ↓ |
| Hard Hit % | 42.7 | 41.2 | -1.5 | ↓ | 47.3 | 6.1 | ↑ | 44.8 | -2.5 | ↓ | 40.1 | -4.7 | ↓ | 46.4 | 6.3 | ↑ |
| LA Sweet-Spot % | 36.9 | 30.4 | -6.5 | ↓ | 34.5 | 4.1 | ↑ | 34.5 | 0.0 | 32.3 | -2.2 | ↓ | 30.5 | -1.8 | ↓ | |
| xBA | .257 | .225 | -0.032 | ↓ | .271 | 0.046 | ↑ | .262 | -0.009 | ↓ | .246 | -0.016 | ↓ | .242 | -0.004 | ↓ |
| BA | .260 | .231 | -0.029 | ↓ | .262 | 0.031 | ↑ | .271 | 0.009 | ↑ | .217 | -0.054 | ↓ | .240 | 0.023 | ↑ |
| xwOBA | .380 | .334 | -0.046 | ↓ | .377 | 0.043 | ↑ | .353 | -0.024 | ↓ | .368 | 0.015 | ↑ | .343 | -0.025 | ↓ |
| wOBA | .384 | .342 | -0.042 | ↓ | .363 | 0.021 | ↑ | .366 | 0.003 | ↑ | .346 | -0.020 | ↓ | .340 | -0.006 | ↓ |
| xSLG | .551 | .463 | -0.088 | ↓ | .542 | 0.079 | ↑ | .486 | -0.056 | ↓ | .527 | 0.041 | ↑ | .461 | -0.066 | ↓ |
| SLG | .583 | .490 | -0.093 | ↓ | .519 | 0.029 | ↑ | .518 | -0.001 | ↓ | .504 | -0.014 | ↓ | .459 | -0.045 | ↓ |
| K% | 26.4 | 25.5 | -0.9 | ↓ | 19.9 | -5.6 | ↓ | 18.7 | -1.2 | ↓ | 22.9 | 4.2 | ↑ | 24.7 | 1.8 | ↑ |
| BB% | 10.4 | 10.0 | -0.4 | ↓ | 9.4 | -0.6 | ↓ | 9.8 | 0.4 | ↑ | 9.9 | 0.1 | ↑ | 10.1 | 0.2 | ↑ |
| Swing % | 46.6 | 46.1 | -0.5 | ↓ | 49.3 | 3.2 | ↑ | 49.9 | 0.6 | ↑ | 43.7 | -6.2 | ↓ | 42.9 | -0.8 | ↓ |
| Whiff% | 28.0 | 30.4 | 2.4 | ↑ | 24.9 | -5.5 | ↓ | 24.2 | -0.7 | ↓ | 26.2 | 2.0 | ↑ | 24.7 | -1.5 | ↓ |
| In Zone % | 41.3 | 44.7 | 3.4 | ↑ | 46.2 | 1.5 | ↑ | 43.8 | -2.4 | ↓ | 47.2 | 3.4 | ↑ | 48.3 | 1.1 | ↑ |
| Out of Zone % | 58.7 | 55.3 | -3.4 | ↓ | 53.8 | -1.5 | ↓ | 56.2 | 2.4 | ↑ | 52.8 | -3.4 | ↓ | 51.7 | -1.1 | ↓ |
| Out of Zone Swing % | 31.9 | 30.5 | -1.4 | ↓ | 30.8 | 0.3 | ↑ | 33.5 | 2.7 | ↑ | 27.4 | -6.1 | ↓ | 25.9 | -1.5 | ↓ |
| First Pitch Swing % | 28.3 | 33.8 | 5.5 | ↑ | 36.7 | 2.9 | ↑ | 33.5 | -3.2 | ↓ | 24.3 | -9.2 | ↓ | 25.1 | 0.8 | ↑ |
| First Pitch Strike % | 59.4 | 61.2 | 1.8 | ↑ | 59.1 | -2.1 | ↓ | 56.4 | -2.7 | ↓ | 58.8 | 2.4 | ↑ | 57.5 | -1.3 | ↓ |
While some metrics fluctuate, Pete Alonso’s Exit Velocity and Barrel % remain consistently high year-over-year, confirming his sustained power. There are minor variations in Launch Angle and Sweet-Spot %, but his core ability to hit the ball hard and generate barrels for home runs remains a constant.
Conclusion: Pete Alonso – An Established Home Run King
Pete Alonso’s Statcast data paints a clear picture of an elite home run hitter. His consistently high Barrel %, Exit Velocity, and Max Exit Velocity, coupled with a fly-ball oriented batted ball profile, are hallmarks of a power hitter. His Expected Home Run numbers and percentile rankings further solidify his place among the top home run hitters in baseball. While pitch type analysis and swing decisions reveal areas for potential refinement, Pete Alonso’s raw power and consistent home run production are undeniable, making him a thrilling player to watch and a force in the modern MLB.
